Miami’s RE is normal, stable comparable to 2010 market
Have you ever asked, “How’s the Real Estate Market in Miami Dade County”? Was the response reasonable and acceptable? Did a broker provide actual research to respond to your question?
Real Estate is a science of hindsight….not until we analyze the past data can we really know what direction we’re headed. And, for this reason I have gathered and compressed the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data to verify, in a nutshell, where our market is today and what the trend is in the future.
If you were to ask me this same question, I would say Miami is and has been in a normal, stable market comparable to the 2010 Real Estate Market.
Born and raised in Miami with over 22 years of Real Estate experience plus a Masters’ Degree in International Real Estate, I have witnessed the market crash and flourish more than once. I’m not just talking about the last economic downtown of 2006, there’s post 9/11 in 2001 and 1995 when interest rates were upwards of 8%, yet homes were steadily selling, mortgage loans issued and successfully closing.
So, in an effort to provide a valid analysis and response to the initial questions above, I researched the Southeast Florida MLS for sold/closed single family homes, condominiums, villas and townhouses in Miami Dade County from 2006 to 2019 from $1 up to $2,000,000. The information gathered is for Quarter 1 (January, February and March) compared year over year for the 13-year time period per price bracket.
To analyze the chart & graph below:
• In the $1 to $500,000 bracket, 2010 indicates our market had formally rebounded from the economic downturn of 2006.
• From 2011 to 2015 the market had steady growth.
• In 2016 sales began to decrease and in year 2019 sales volume was comparable to the year 2010 range (right at the continuous growth spurt).
• 2020 would then correlate with 2011 sales indicating an increase from the current 2019 sales volume.
The second series analysis:
• From $500,001 to $1,000,000 a steady climb commenced but then jumped in 2013 and has been stable ever since.
• Currently in 2019 we are comparable to a 2013 market.
The third series range:
• From $1,000,001 to $2,000,000 rebounded with the biggest jump in 2014.
• We are, in 2019, similar to a 2011 post recession sales volume.
To further analyze the data provided I obtained random samples of neighborhood sales to compare prices from a decade ago in 2009 to today’s 2019 prices. All in all, property prices have greatly increased.
• The least increase was found in the Aventura area, with a 10% price enhancement.
• Downtown Miami amplified its’ value by 48%.
• Kendall strengthened by 49%.
• Hialeah surges with 52.66% increase in value.
• Homestead wins with a compelling 61% increase.
• Miami Lakes value raised by 37.5%.
• South Beach witnessed a 35.75% hike.
In sum, although the 2019 sales volume has decreased, the Miami Dade County market has fully rebounded value-wise from the last recession and we are smooth sailing in a stable market with its normal ups and downs. The graph shows a normal increase and decrease in sales and since we are currently at the lower end, the 2020 market volume will increase again.
Is it a good time to buy? Yes it is! Why wait when you can invest in the most solid investment category, Real Estate.
For more details or questions on this report, please contact MGonzalez@FLFirstRealty.com
Broker | MSIRE
* All data retrieved from Southeast Florida MLS.
**The comparables obtained were for similar size units, in the same building/development but did not take into consideration the condition, days on market, financing or any seller contributions.
***This is my personal opinion of the Miami Dade County real estate market.
****Margin for error may exist.